Notional results for a UK general election on 12 December 2019 Wales - by vote share

Parties Constituencies Majorities Vote shares of winning candidates Turnouts

A notional general election to the 58th Parliament of the United Kingdom with an electorate of 47,558,398, having 32,014,119 valid votes.

Ranking Constituency Winning party Vote share
1 Cardiff East Lab 59.2%
2 Rhondda and Ogmore Lab 56.3%
3 Cardiff South and Penarth Lab 53.7%
4 Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr Con 53.6%
5 Aberafan Maesteg Lab 52.9%
6 Mid and South Pembrokeshire Con 52.9%
7 Monmouthshire Con 52.1%
8 Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Lab 51.7%
9 Swansea West Lab 51.4%
10 Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Lab 50.4%
11 Cardiff West Lab 50.2%
12 Cardiff North Lab 49.6%
13 Vale of Glamorgan Con 49.1%
14 Clwyd East Con 47.9%
15 Newport East Lab 47.5%
16 Neath and Swansea East Lab 47.1%
17 Pontypridd Lab 46.6%
18 Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Con 46.6%
19 Wrexham Con 46.5%
20 Clwyd North Con 45.8%
21 Gower Lab 45.8%
22 Dwyfor Meirionnydd PC 45.7%
23 Bridgend Con 44.0%
24 Caerphilly Lab 43.9%
25 Torfaen Lab 42.7%
26 Alyn and Deeside Lab 42.7%
27 Newport West and Islwyn Lab 41.8%
28 Bangor Aberconwy Con 40.0%
29 Llanelli Lab 39.3%
30 Caerfyrddin Con 39.2%
31 Ynys Môn Con 35.5%
32 Ceredigion Preseli PC 31.1%

Estimates of the 2019 general election result in new constituencies

BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the Press Association have together produced estimates of the 2019 general election result as if the new constituencies recommended by the separate Parliamentary Boundary Commissions for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland had then been in existence.

Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver (Scotland), Nicholas Whyte (NI) for Sky News, PA, BBC News and ITV News.

An explanation of the methods used and the electoral impact of the changes can be found in the linked document.