Notional results for a UK general election on 12 December 2019 Wales - by majority

Parties Constituencies Majorities Vote shares of winning candidates Turnouts

A notional general election to the 58th Parliament of the United Kingdom with an electorate of 47,558,398, having 32,014,119 valid votes.

Ranking Constituency Winning party Majority Valid vote count Majority / valid vote count
1 Rhondda and Ogmore Lab 17,377 42,549 40.8%
2 Cardiff East Lab 17,079 46,781 36.5%
3 Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Lab 13,410 43,106 31.1%
4 Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Lab 12,969 42,094 30.8%
5 Aberafan Maesteg Lab 13,457 44,423 30.3%
6 Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr Con 14,765 51,208 28.8%
7 Cardiff South and Penarth Lab 11,851 50,370 23.5%
8 Swansea West Lab 10,037 44,199 22.7%
9 Monmouthshire Con 10,837 52,872 20.5%
10 Cardiff West Lab 10,546 51,941 20.3%
11 Dwyfor Meirionnydd PC 9,880 50,518 19.6%
12 Pontypridd Lab 8,798 45,579 19.3%
13 Neath and Swansea East Lab 8,451 44,824 18.9%
14 Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Con 9,091 52,276 17.4%
15 Mid and South Pembrokeshire Con 8,621 54,971 15.7%
16 Caerphilly Lab 6,901 45,069 15.3%
17 Cardiff North Lab 7,579 54,709 13.9%
18 Newport East Lab 5,239 46,405 11.3%
19 Clwyd East Con 5,284 52,820 10.0%
20 Torfaen Lab 4,110 43,553 9.4%
21 Llanelli Lab 3,793 43,892 8.6%
22 Caerfyrddin Con 4,529 53,342 8.5%
23 Wrexham Con 3,939 47,123 8.4%
24 Gower Lab 3,181 54,231 5.9%
25 Clwyd North Con 2,834 51,289 5.5%
26 Bridgend Con 2,553 46,708 5.5%
27 Ynys Môn Con 1,968 36,552 5.4%
28 Vale of Glamorgan Con 2,566 49,993 5.1%
29 Newport West and Islwyn Lab 2,001 48,537 4.1%
30 Ceredigion Preseli PC 1,443 51,667 2.8%
31 Bangor Aberconwy Con 749 48,407 1.5%
32 Alyn and Deeside Lab 411 52,350 0.8%

Estimates of the 2019 general election result in new constituencies

BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the Press Association have together produced estimates of the 2019 general election result as if the new constituencies recommended by the separate Parliamentary Boundary Commissions for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland had then been in existence.

Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver (Scotland), Nicholas Whyte (NI) for Sky News, PA, BBC News and ITV News.

An explanation of the methods used and the electoral impact of the changes can be found in the linked document.