Notional election for the constituency of North Ayrshire and Arran on 12 December 2019
A notional election to the 58th Parliament of the United Kingdom for the constituency area of North Ayrshire and Arran, forming part of the notional general election on 12 December 2019.
Scottish National Party win with a majority of 8,521 - 17.7% - on a turnout of 65.4%.
An electorate of 73,588, having a valid vote count of 48,154.
Candidates
| Party | Vote | Vote share |
|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 23,376 | 48.5% |
| Conservative | 14,855 | 30.8% |
| Labour | 6,702 | 13.9% |
| Liberal Democrat | 2,107 | 4.4% |
| Scottish Green Party | 1,114 | 2.3% |
Under section 13(b) of the Representation of the People Act 1985, a candidate gaining 5% or less of the vote share will forfeit their deposit.
Estimates of the 2019 general election result in new constituencies
BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the Press Association have together produced estimates of the 2019 general election result as if the new constituencies recommended by the separate Parliamentary Boundary Commissions for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland had then been in existence.
Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver (Scotland), Nicholas Whyte (NI) for Sky News, PA, BBC News and ITV News.
An explanation of the methods used and the electoral impact of the changes can be found in the linked document.